Current Project State
Current Milestone
Formal global optimization pipeline. Design brief: research/synthesis/global_opt_pipeline_brief.md.
Being handed to ChatGPT 5.4 Pro for pipeline design.
Incumbent
ep06c_polished, NLL = -5381.59 +/- 0.15 SEM at R=100k (paired 5-seed tie-break).
Truth-connected: descent from theta_true reaches the same neighborhood within 1.7 nats.
~350 nats better than prior headline.
Top Open Questions
- 154-nat MLE-DGP gap at R=100k — sample-MLE displacement, not basin discovery. Basin discovery is closed for the current panel.
- Operator-floor null N3: is the geometric tail operator
eta_H * r/(1-r)with a single globalrthe real bottleneck for tail pricing accuracy? (Consistent with Exp 09 non-monotonicity + Exp 12 R-conditionality.) - Global recovery from cold starts: best cold NLL = -5131 (255-nat gap). Bottleneck is local-opt depth, not search coverage.
Last Decisive Experiment Outcomes
| Exp | Verdict | Date | Wiki Page |
|---|---|---|---|
| Exp 12: Online asymptotic onset | KILL_DETECTOR_FAILS | 2026-04-12 | exp-12-online-asymptotic-onset-detection |
| Exp 11: Curvature at incumbent | DIAGNOSTIC_ONLY + major fragility | 2026-04-11 | exp-11-curvature-incumbent-scaled-diagnostic |
| Exp 10: Hybrid tail cache | KILL_NEGATIVE_LEVERAGE | 2026-04-11 | exp-10-hybrid-tail-cache-theta-only |
| Exp10a: Restart allocation | PASS (promoted incumbent) | 2026-04-10 | exp-07-optarch-10-restart-allocation-incumbent |
| Exp 09: Adaptive tail splice | PARTIAL PASS (not production-ready) | 2026-04-09 | exp-09-adaptive-tail-splice-mc-pricing |
Phase Status (compressed)
| Block | Status |
|---|---|
| Foundations | All complete (tests passing) |
| Constrained Est | Complete. Incumbent: ep06c_polished at -5381.59 SEM |
| Bansal Approx | FAIL — Jensen gap 67-72% at 50yr |
| Basin Finder 01-05 | All audited. See experiment pages |
| Sim Recovery | Local PASS / Global FAIL. Audit pending |
| Exp 10 (Hybrid tail cache) | KILL_NEGATIVE_LEVERAGE |
| Exp 11 (Curvature) | DIAGNOSTIC_ONLY + major fragility |
| Exp 12 (Online onset) | KILL_DETECTOR_FAILS |
| Pending | 08 sub-experiments after Gate; pipeline design; writeup queue W3-W5; PMMH |
Outstanding Writeups
- W3:
06_last_mile_probe_v2/06c_v2_highr_polish— producedep06c_polished, no memo - W4:
08_basin_geometryinterim (P0/P1 + 08a) - W5:
est_on_sim_dataaudit (memo exists,04_audit/empty)
Canonical Next Docs
- Synthesis brief:
research/synthesis/global_opt_pipeline_brief.md - Full experiment registry:
.claude/docs/experiment_registry.md - Full gotchas:
.claude/docs/gotchas.md - Full plan:
/workspace/PLAN.md - Arc tracker:
/workspace/SALVAGE_INDEX.md - Documents index:
/workspace/documents/INDEX.md - Wiki experiments:
omega-wiki/wiki/experiments/ - Wiki claims:
omega-wiki/wiki/claims/ - Wiki open questions:
omega-wiki/wiki/graph/open_questions.md - Wiki context brief:
omega-wiki/wiki/graph/context_brief.md